High Stakes in Crypto Options
As the hotly anticipated direct listing of a prominent crypto exchange approaches, options traders are throwing their hats—and bitcoin—into the ring. Betting is on for Bitcoin to hit new heights, and let’s just say the odds are as enticing as an extra slice of pizza on a Friday night. Data from crypto analytics firm Glassnode revealed that traders are clamoring for options with a striking price of $80,000 by the end of April. With a whopping 4,000 BTC worth of contracts itching to expire, it’s a wild ride ahead!
The $80,000 Bet
On March 24, the crypto community was buzzing with news that options traders on Deribit are stocking up on contracts targeting our golden price point of $80,000. It’s no mere whim; this figure surpasses other strike prices by at least 50%. Cue the confetti, or perhaps just some cautious optimism!
Probability Analysis: Will It Happen?
While the notion is exciting, let’s check in with some friendly numbers. According to Skew, the chances that Bitcoin will exceed that juicy price tag at the expiry of these contracts is a mere 6.19%. Not exactly a slam dunk, but for some, it’s like betting on a horse with a really cool name. With such low probability hints, traders might be quietly crossing their fingers and tossing salt over their shoulders.
Doubling Down: $120,000 Contracts
But wait! In a twist worthy of any daytime soap opera, there’s also a significant amount of action around $120,000 contracts. Traders seem convinced of Bitcoin’s potential for a price surge, represented by the numbers carefully strung together in their spreadsheets. However, Skew, ever the realist, puts the chances of reaching $100,000 by the end of April at just 2.15%. Talk about a gamble!
The Incline of Open Interest
Open interest in these contracts is on the rise, showcasing that BTC options markets are alive and kicking. Data shows that the April 30 contracts currently hold the title of the third-most-popular, garnering interest that amounts to a notional value of 38,700 BTC. For those keeping score, June 21 contracts are a close second, while a sizeable chunk worth $6 billion is set to expire on March 26. It’s a numbers game, and these traders are playing for keeps!
Dominance of Deribit
Despite the presence of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and a few other players in the options arena, Deribit continues to reign supreme among crypto options volumes. In fact, Skew estimates that an impressive 91% of the BTC options contracts traded recently came from Deribit alone. Talk about having the virtual monopoly! While Bit.com accounts for a measly 5% and OKEx for 2%, the competition surely has some catching up to do.
