Bitcoin’s Current Plight
As June 13 rolls around, Bitcoin is treating investors like the last piece of cake at a party—everyone wants it, but it just keeps getting smaller. Trading at about $23,400, Bitcoin has plunged to its lowest prices since mid-December 2020. With news of a weekend sell-off intensifying, BTC/USD has broken below its realized price, which is the average price point for the last transaction of each Bitcoin.
Realized Price: A Flashlight in the Dark
For many traders, the realized price is like the light at the end of a tunnel. With Bitcoin hovering around it, the realized price now acts as the first significant support level. Think of it as Bitcoin’s clutching at straws moment. “People are looking to buy there,” says Josh Rager, a well-known crypto analyst, making it sound more like a hopeful prediction than a guarantee as everyone waits anxiously to see if this support holds.
Moving Average: The 200-Week Line of Defense
What’s next on Bitcoin’s roller coaster ride to the depths of despair? Enter the elusive 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently lounging around $22,370. Historically, this average has been a tough nut to crack, and most see it as a crucial support. Brief wicks below it have marked the generational bottom in Bitcoin’s history. Traders often describe this phenomenon as a “self-fulfilling prophecy”—if enough people believe something will happen, it probably will. But here’s a twist—there’s no guarantee we won’t keep sliding!
Potential Bottoms: The Wish List
Jumping past the 200 SMA, there are some levels investors are keeping an eye on: 2017’s all-time high around $20,000, and the levels dipping down toward $14,000. Rager claims that dropping to $11,000 would be akin to handing Bitcoin’s bull market a one-way ticket to the back of the line. Never mind the ups and downs of the economy—the concern now is whether we are witnessing a full retrace of the entire bull market, which historically hasn’t happened.
The Fed’s Intervention: The Last Resort
On another front, as U.S. equities are also feeling the heat from the market, some economists argue that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies could make or break Bitcoin’s future. Traders seem desperate for a pivot from the Fed just as a player in a sports game hopes for a miraculous comeback in the last seconds. As Algorand’s token crumbles and the S&P 500 dives, Bitcoin’s fate become eerily tied to the Fed’s next move. If things don’t turn around soon, we could see Bitcoin cross below the prior halving cycle’s all-time high, a move that would mark an unprecedented move in the crypto world.
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