Bitcoin Price Rollercoaster: What Bulls and Bears Need to Know for Nov. 19 Expiry

Bitcoin Bulls and Their Rollercoaster Emotions

On November 10, Bitcoin bulls were letting out a collective cheer as prices soared to a whopping $69,000, marking a jubilant 14.5% gain over just five days. That rally translated into a cozy little $715 million profit for many, especially with the options expiry coming up on Nov. 12. But hold onto your wallets! Just six days later, November 16 hit the bulls with a not-so-gentle surprise, sending prices down by another 9%. Talk about a plot twist!

The SEC’s Buzzkill and Its Aftermath

So, what happened to burst their euphoric bubble? Enter the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who decided to deny VanEck’s spot Bitcoin ETF request. While this rejection wasn’t exactly a shock to the system, the SEC’s reasoning certainly raised eyebrows. They cited uncertainties regarding Tether’s stablecoin and concerns over fraud and market manipulation in Bitcoin trading. A senior analyst had already given it a 1% chance of approval, so Bitcoin bulls presumably weren’t holding their breath.

What President Biden Brought on Board

But the fun didn’t stop there! On November 15, President Biden signed an infrastructure bill that requires all digital asset transactions over $10,000 to be reported to the IRS starting in 2024. Let’s just say this caused quite the ripple in the trading community. Bulls might be regretting those bullish bets as Nov. 19’s options expiry approaches.

Deciphering the Options Market: What’s Cooking?

As we edge closer to that all-important expiry date, let’s face it: the options market looks like a tense game of tug-of-war. Currently, call options dominate with a whopping $630 million, compared to $470 million in put options. But wait—you can’t be fooled by that ratio alone! With recent price drops, many of those bullish bets might just crash and burn.

Potential Profit Scenarios for Nov. 19

Let’s get into the nitty-gritty. Depending on where BTC prices settle, we’ve outlined four potential scenarios for the $1.1 billion options expiry:

• Between $58,000 and $60,000: 10 calls vs. 3,840 puts, $220 million in favor of puts.
• Between $60,000 and $62,000: 910 calls vs. 1,950 puts, $60 million in favor of puts.
• Between $62,000 and $64,000: 2,030 calls vs. 940 puts, $70 million in favor of calls.
• Above $64,000: 2,920 calls vs. 240 puts, $175 million in favor of calls.

While this gives us some idea of what to expect, it’s important to remember that options allow for all kinds of complex strategies, including selling put options, allowing traders to benefit from Bitcoin’s price staying above certain thresholds.

The Road Ahead: What Do Bulls Need?

Bulls need a quick and swift kick to get back on track, requiring Bitcoin prices to soar above $64,000, which is about a 6% increase from the current level of $60,400. If bears continue to exert their influence, they could profit massively—up to $220 million—if Bitcoin remains around $58,000. As it stands, the options data leans slightly toward puts, hinting that a rally might be less likely before Nov. 19.

Final Thoughts

The world of cryptocurrency is as unpredictable as a cat on a hot tin roof. With the potential for prices to swing wildly, both bulls and bears need to keep their eyes on the prize while managing the inherent risks of trading. Whether you’re riding high on bullish dreams or implementing cautious strategies with puts, remember—every trade is a gamble!