The Long Wait for Bitcoin Profits

New analysis indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) holders typically see their investments turn a profit after an astonishing average of 1,335 days—roughly three years and eight months. Patience, as they say, is a virtue, especially when it comes to digital gold.

The Correlation to Bitcoin’s Cycles

This lengthy timeframe highlights the fascinating relationship between Bitcoin’s price behavior and its reward halving cycles, which occur approximately every four years. Released on September 8 by BitcoinEconomics.io, the data suggests that savvy investors might want to plan their entry points with this cycle in mind.

Profit Probability: What Does the Data Say?

Looking at the historical performance, the results are mixed. If you had bought BTC at its peak in late 2013, when it soared like a balloon filled with helium to $1,150, brace yourself: it took until early 2017 for Bitcoin to reach that price again. On the other hand, if you were lucky enough to dodge that bullet, here’s the silver lining:

• Holding Bitcoin for 317 days grants you a 75% chance of making a profit.
• Give it just 35 days, and you still have a 60% chance of being in the green.
• In fact, there’s a steady 50% chance of profit on any given day!

Against the S&P 500: A Study in Patience

Now, if you think waiting 1,335 days for Bitcoin profits is a stretch, consider this: investors in the S&P 500 would need to hold on for a whopping 23 years to assure a profit! That’s more time than it takes to raise a child or watch every season of your favorite TV show more than once!

The Scale of Bull Run Profits

This analysis focuses purely on the chance of profit rather than the size of profit earned. When Bitcoin does rally, the returns can overwhelmingly dwarf those from traditional stock indices. For instance, the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust boasted an insane appreciation of nearly 300% just in 2019—talk about a profitable investment party!

Final Thoughts on HODLing

So, before you decide to jump ship at the first wave of turbulence, consider the data. The long game with Bitcoin could pay off handsomely, maybe just not tomorrow or even next year. Invest wisely and maybe pack a snack for the wait!