Bitcoin has been hanging out below the $26,300 mark since mid-June, having taken a 14.8% nosedive over two months. Interestingly, while Bitcoin’s crying in the corner, the Nasdaq tech stock index has sprouted a healthy 13.6% gain in the same timeframe. You see, the folks on Wall Street aren’t exactly running to cash and short-term debt like they used to. In fact, there’s been a noticeable dip in the demand for U.S. government bonds over the past six weeks. If this were a high school reunion, Bitcoin would be that awkward kid who no one talks to anymore.

The Bond Yield Rollercoaster

Let’s talk bonds. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasurys has jumped from 3.80% on May 4 to a shocking 4.68% by June 14. Higher yields mean less demand for those common debt instruments—just ask the bond market. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious, and if they believe inflation will stick around, they’re going to expect higher yields on their bonds, kind of like offering candy on Halloween.

The Borrowing Bonanza

And get this: The U.S. Treasury plans to unleash more than $850 billion in new bills between June and September. Yes, you heard it—850 billion! With this extra debt floating around, yields are likely to go up, which could turn up the heat on borrowing costs for both families and businesses. Meanwhile, the tech sector seems to be gaining all the popularity, and Bitcoin…well, not so much.

Cry Me a River: Crypto Outflows

According to CoinShares’ latest report, crypto investments saw a whopping $88 million slip away in the week ending June 10. That’s just part of an ongoing eight-week losing streak that totals $417 million in outflows. Bitcoin, being the lone wolf, has seen $254 million of that total, which is approximately 1.2% of all assets under management. Analysts suggest that rising interest rates have people looking twice before diving into cryptocurrencies. And honestly, can we blame them?

The Options Drama

Bitcoin is currently trying to keep its balance on the diving board, aiming to recover the $27,500 support for the past two weeks. However, a $600 million weekly options expiry is looming, making this recovery a more daunting feat than trying to eat just one chip from a bag. The amount of open interest for options indicates that many traders believed Bitcoin had a fighting chance after it briefly spiked over $27,000. Spoiler: that optimism might not be enough!

What the Future Holds: Scenarios Ahead

So, what’s in the crystal ball for Bitcoin? Here are three potential scenarios based on the current price trends:

• Between $24,000 and $25,000: 0 calls vs. 6,100 puts. Bears could cash in a cool $145 million.
• Between $25,000 and $26,500: 1,000 calls vs. 4,400 puts. A situation where puts wear the crown with a potential $100 million profit.
• Between $26,500 and $27,000: 2,200 calls vs. 2,800 puts. The scales balance—you know, like when everyone agrees on pizza toppings.

Traders should buckle up. The bears are currently holding the upper hand ahead of the weekly options expiry, which could lead to some price Roulette—perhaps even a sharp correction down below $25,000. Sounds like an exciting weekend, right?