Bitcoin’s Bullish Forecast: A Glimpse into the Market Cycle
Rafael Schultze-Kraft, the Chief Technical Officer at a major crypto market data aggregator, claims that Bitcoin’s market indicators are pointing in a very optimistic direction, perhaps even teasing prices that could surpass $200,000. While predicting the unpredictable is a game for the brave, Schultze-Kraft provides a fascinating analysis to back up his claims.
Current Market Indicators: A Throwback to 2017?
On December 9, Schultze-Kraft shared a Twitter thread spotlighting six critical on-chain market indicators, suggesting they mirrored the levels seen at the dawn of 2017—a year that ended with Bitcoin hitting its all-time high, or, to put it lightly, mooning. Now, investors are huddled in anticipation, contemplating whether Bitcoin is on the brink of another exhilarating ascent. But unlike your weekend Netflix binge, this show is just getting started.
The Profit/Loss Puzzle
One indicator that caught Schultze-Kraft’s eye is Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)—essentially measuring how many coins are sitting pretty versus those crying in their wallets. Currently, the NUPL hovers around 78% of its 2017 highs, suggesting that if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, we might be looking at Bitcoin dancing near $286,000. Can I get a ‘Ka-Ching!’?
Market Cap’s Mash-Up with Thermocap
Next up is BTC’s Market Cap to Thermocap ratio, which paints a picture of Bitcoin’s premium price in relation to what miners are spending. Right now, it’s like a frugal shopper at a clearance sale, sitting at about one-quarter of its 2017 peek. If history repeats itself, that could potentially launch the price to an impressive $138,000. Is Bitcoin pumping iron in preparation?
MVRV Z-Score Madness
The MVRV Z-Score, reflecting Bitcoin’s perceived value compared to its fair value, currently rests at a cozy 34% of its 2017 peak. If this score stages a great comeback like your favorite soccer star, we might be eyeing a $240,000 return. It’s like watching a sporting event while placing bets—thrilling and terrifying all at once!
Long-Term Holders and Their Profits
Schultze-Kraft doesn’t stop there! He dives into metrics tracking long-term holders, who seem to have a serious case of holding onto their digital assets. The Long-Term Holder MVRV, indicative of their profits, is sitting delicately at just 13% of peak markers. And guess what? If history aligns, we might see prices soaring to heights of $274,000 or even $328,000. Buckle up because this wild ride might just begin.
A Healthy Dose of Caution
Despite the sunny predictions, Schultze-Kraft urged caution, reminding everyone to take these bullish figures with a grain of salt—after all, Bitcoin is known for its dramatic flair. Glassnode’s latest report notes the potential for a temporary retrace in prices, noting that some investors are likely realizing profits from recent stats. But fret not; the long-term view remains vigorous and hopeful.
In summary, the hints of bullishness may stir excitement, but it’s wise to keep an eye on market rhythms and fluctuations. If nothing else, we’re sure in for an interesting time!
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