Remembering Predictions: The Good, the Bad, and the Cheeky

Back in July 2020, Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Cardano, confidently tweeted about a bustling future for the blockchain. With dreams of thousands of decentralized applications (DApps) and a treasure trove of assets, his hopeful forecast now basks in a bit of humor. Fast forward to today, and it’s clear that reality likes to play a good game of hide and seek. As Hoskinson himself said, ‘Remember when I predicted thousands of assets and DApps on Cardano? Well, I was wrong, there are now millions of native assets issued and DApps are now in the hundreds. #SlowAndSteady.’

DApps: Where Are They?

While there’s no shortage of native assets on Cardano—thanks in part to the NFT minting explosion—the DApp count isn’t exactly winning any races. According to DefiLlama, a handy little analytics platform, that number hovers around a mere seven DApps. Seven! The total value locked (TVL) in these DApps is $315.72 million, but if you peel back the layers, you’ll find two of those DApps standing proudly at $0 TVL. That’s right, folks. $0.

The Calm Before the Storm: Vasil Hard Fork Expectations

Well, if you feel the looming atmosphere of anticipation, you’re not alone. Hoskinson reasons that many developers are biding their time, waiting for the Vasil hard fork upgrade scheduled for this June before charging headfirst into the DApp pool. In fact, the promise of pipelining and new features might just be the catalyst needed to set things into motion.

Building Momentum: The SundaeSwap Surge

The Cardano ecosystem saw a significant uptick in activity with the launch of SundaeSwap, a decentralized exchange (DEX) that went live on January 21. In a blink and you’ll miss it scenario, TVL soared from $3 million to $87.7 million within a day. Talk about a sugar rush! Cardano’s TVL now stands at a record $315.7 million, but that still puts it in the kiddie pool compared to giants like Ethereum and Solana, which boast TVLs of $137.3 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively.

The Road Ahead: Why Patience is a Virtue

Though Hoskinson’s predictions may not have panned out exactly as he envisioned, the Cardano ecosystem is steadily growing. The launch of new DApps and ongoing upgrades may yet bring about the promised thousands. The waiting game might not be glamorous, but hey, slow and steady can still win the race—eventually.