The New Definition of Recession?

It seems like everyone has their own take on the term ‘recession’ these days. Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department indicates that our dear ol’ economic machine has contracted for two consecutive quarters. You know what that means? If you’re playing by the textbook, we’ve officially hit a technical recession. But wait! The Biden Administration is waving its hands like a magician at a kids’ birthday party, insisting we’re perfectly fine, highlighting low unemployment and other shiny metrics that suggest all might not be lost.

A Curious Case of Contradictions

Mati Greenspan, the mastermind behind Quantum Economics, recently dove into this conundrum in his newsletter. He pointed out the curious paradox of a GDP drop colliding headlong with surging stocks and other risk assets. Apparently, while the economy is doing a face-plant, investors are still gathering in the town square tossing confetti. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 0.75% appears to have sent crypto markets soaring, with Ethereum (ETH) skyrocketing by 5% shortly after!

Unemployment: A Silver Lining?

Now, let’s talk about the elephant in the room: unemployment. Greenspan acknowledged the current rate is