A Rollercoaster November for Bitcoin
November was anything but boring for Bitcoin enthusiasts. Price swings made even the most stoic investors clutch their pearls. Well, never fear, a recent report from Capriole Investments suggests that we might be nearing the bottom. Spoiler alert: $16,600-$16,950 might just be the magic numbers!
SLRV Ribbons: A Shiny New Indicator
Let’s kick things off with the SLRV Ribbons. These beauties combine the trusty 30-day and 150-day moving averages with a spicy twist: the SLRV Ratio. Simply put, it tells us what portion of Bitcoin is moving in a day compared to what’s been held for over half a year. Sounds fancy, right?
- When the SLRV Ribbons flash a buy signal, you might want to pay attention.
- Charles Edwards claims these ribbons could beat the traditional HODL strategy, especially since they flipped bullish recently.
“If it quacks like a buy signal, it probably is!” – A very wise observer
The Electrical Cost Conundrum
So, miners are a bit miffed right now. Many are selling Bitcoin just to keep the lights on—literally. The electrical costs are high, but Bitcoin prices have dipped below these historical levels at only a few points in time. This leads us to another key point: the electrical cost is often a floor. If you’re wondering why this matters, consider the fact that BTC traded below this line only four times before.
Mining Madness: Miners are Selling
Here’s the kicker: miner selling pressure is through the roof. As they push back against rising costs, they’ve decided to sell. The current selling level is the third largest recorded. You think they’re regretting those late-night mining sessions now?
- 2011: BTC price around $2.10
- 2015: BTC price around $290
- Present day: A (disheartening) gap to fill
Capitulation: A Miner’s Last Stand
During tough times, we talk about capitulation. It’s like when investors throw their hands up and just sell. According to reports, we experienced such capitulation on November 28. If history teaches us anything, a rise in hash rate tends to follow these events, hinting at a potential bottom likely near $16,915.
Hodlers and the Cycle of Life
Despite the turmoil, long-term hodling is at an all-time high! Currently, 66% of Bitcoin is in the hands of those brave enough to hold for over a year. Edwards suggests that such behavior aligns with historical bear market lows. So if you’re still holding on, you’re in good company!
Final takeaway: although Bitcoin faces its share of challenges, the smart money (and the data) indicate we may be closing in on a major cycle bottom. Hang tight, folks!
