The Current State of Bitcoin and Its Price Surge
Bitcoin has rocketed up by an astonishing 120% this year, leaving traders twiddling their thumbs and wondering: where’s the FOMO? While everyone’s basking in the glory of highs not seen for 18 months, some data points suggest we might be in the calm before the storm. Bitcoin’s price is well outside the bear market trading range, but speculators seem to be missing from the party.
Where Are All the Speculators?
Despite an uptick in smaller wallets, the return of those casual, short-term BTC holders has been slower than a turtle on a lazy afternoon. Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift took to the platform X (formerly Twitter) to shed some light on this phenomenon using the RHODL waves metric.
- What are RHODL waves? RHODL waves categorize Bitcoin by age, showing how long coins have been held and at what price they last moved on-chain. In simpler terms, it’s like a traffic report for Bitcoin: and right now, traffic seems to be light.
Bitcoin’s HODL Waves: The Colors Aren’t Bright Yet
Swift noted that the warmer colors—indicating the coins being transferred on-chain—are just beginning to ramp up, signaling that FOMO is still lounging on a sunbed somewhere, sipping drinks with umbrellas. The lack of activity among speculators—those who flip BTC as if it were hot sauce—is a sign that much of the market isn’t ready to dive in just yet.
Profitability: Are We Nearing a Breakeven Point?
Meanwhile, our friends at CryptoQuant explored profitability through the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator. Their findings? It looks like those who jumped aboard the Bitcoin train during its 2021 highs are still stuck at the station, underwater and looking around nervously.
- A key takeaway: All UTXO age bands are currently profitable—except for coins held between 18 months to 3 years. The entry point during the price rally suggests these investors are anxiously awaiting a trip back to breakeven if Bitcoin can hold above $39,000.
Whales vs. Small Fish: The Balance of the Market
Interestingly, data indicates that a mere 11.6% of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are currently at a loss. However, with whale entities reportedly intensifying their selling at these prices, the game is clearly shifting. What does that mean for the market? It indicates a rather interesting dynamic—whales might see the current environment as the perfect time to cash in while new players still remain tentative.
The Takeaway
Ultimately, while Bitcoin’s journey for a full-fledged bull market recovery remains ongoing, the FOMO factor hasn’t quite kicked in. Investors and traders alike continue to tread cautiously, eyeing the horizon for any signs of a market stampede. Remember, any investment decision should be made with caution—just like that last piece of cake at a party; you don’t want to regret it later!
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