The Dreaded September for Bitcoin
Ah, September—the month when fall sweater weather meets the chill of Bitcoin’s worst trading history. According to a volatility report from Kraken, historically speaking, this month has been as friendly to Bitcoin (BTC) as a porcupine at a balloon party, averaging negative returns of -7%. Kraken’s experts predict that given Bitcoin’s less-than-stellar performance over the year, this September’s results might just take the cake for worst-ever.
Red Flags and Glimmers of Hope
But wait! Before we grab the tissues and write a eulogy for BTC, let’s take a step back. The report points out that there’s a flicker of optimism in the data: a record amount of Bitcoin’s supply has been as inactive as my gym membership, with many coins sitting dormant for over a year. Kraken noted this phenomenon often signals an impending bull market. Talk about a classic case of “you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone!”
History Repeats: Volatility Ahead
Next up, let’s talk about volatility, the wild child of blockchain. Historically, when Bitcoin’s annualized volatility dips between 15% and 30%, a dramatic surge follows, averaging a staggering climb to 140% and a return of +196% over just 94 days. Just like that time I tried to lose weight and ended up gaining 10 pounds instead—inevitabilities, right?
September’s Softness: Will It Deliver Punch?
Despite its historical infamy, September is also known for exceptionally low volatility. The report comments that we might not see much action until Q4 rolls in, leaving many traders in limbo—kinda like waiting for a pizza delivery that feels like it’s been days. One can only hope for an uptick as the year has been anything but boring.
Correlation Shenanigans with Gold and Stocks
In more market misdemeanors, August’s Bitcoin behavior also raised eyebrows as it showed an unprecedented correlation with gold, hitting a record of 0.97 before dropping to a cool 0.25. So, while one might think BTC is trying to be the reliable friend, it seems to be a little more like that friend who guarantees a good time but then becomes MIA. Bitcoin also pestered the S&P 500 with varying degrees of correlation, leading to thoughts of whether BTC is taking a break from its old pals in the stock market.
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