The Current State of Bitcoin: A Troubling Divergence
Bitcoin (BTC) has taken a detour so severe that it’s left behind its Stock-to-Flow (S2F) forecast like a drunken sailor in a storm. The latest figures reveal that BTC/USD is now more off-course than a GPS that’s lost its satellite connection. Looks like the only thing growing faster than Bitcoin’s supposed value is the deviation from its predicted trajectory.
Evaluating the Grim Landscape of S2F
The S2F model has set a new record for grimness that would make even the grumpiest cat raise an eyebrow. With the fallout from the FTX scandal dragging prices down, the once revered S2F model is getting slapped with flak from all directions. The model, which used to make Bitcoin enthusiasts feel like they were about to hit the jackpot, now has its forecasts tightening like a bad belt after the holiday feast.
- The S2F model predicts BTC should be trading over $72,000 as of November 19.
- But on Nov. 10, the S2F Multiple crashed to an eye-watering -1.5, marking a record negative reading.
Understanding the Price Suppression Effect
This grim reality has profound implications for Bitcoin miners, who may feel like they’re panning for gold in a dried-up riverbed. The ongoing price suppression forces miners to recalibrate their operations. It’s like trying to play chess with a pigeon—no matter how strategic you are, the bird just flaps around and knocks over all the pieces.
The Tale of Two Models
Interestingly, there’s a second S2F model analysis from LookIntoBitcoin echoing the same concerns. According to this alternative model crafted by Philip Swift, we’ve strayed further from the S2F line than ever. Swift shared, “We are currently at -1.26, surpassing the previous record set in 2011.”
PlanB: The Resilient Optimist
Meanwhile, PlanB, the pseudonymous maestro behind S2F, remains unfazed by the clamor. In a recent tweet, he expressed a rather zen perspective: “Feels like the world has ended, but FTX will probably be just a small blip on the long-term radar.” Is this the calm amidst the storm, or is PlanB just wearing some really good rose-colored glasses?
Defending the Model in Troubling Times
Despite growing skepticism towards S2F, PlanB asserts that even if the forecast had to stretch its legs a bit, it still provides a measure of insight that’s a step above guesswork. And who doesn’t appreciate a little bit of insight in these shaky times?
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?
As Bitcoin meanders in uncharted waters, only time will tell if the S2F model can reclaim its former glory or if it will be left behind in the annals of cryptocurrency lore. Either way, it’s crucial for investors to keep their eyes peeled and wallets tight because the cryptocurrency seas can turn treacherous in the blink of an eye!
