Thomas Lee’s Bitcoin Predictions: The Good, The Bad, and The Unexpected

The Rise and Fall of Predictions

Thomas Lee, the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, recently faced a reality check. After confidently predicting a Bitcoin rally following the Consensus conference in New York, he had to admit that the market didn’t behave as expected. Instead of rising, Bitcoin prices dipped by as much as 10% during the conference. Talk about being late to the party!

March of the Bitcoin Enthusiasts

Before the May 14-16 event, there was a lot of excitement in the air. Lee’s prediction relied heavily on the attendance rates and the idea that the cryptocurrency community would gather together to share ideas, build networks, and let the good times roll. With the conference boasting over 8,700 participants—more than triple last year’s number—expectations were high. Unfortunately, they weren’t high enough to prevent the disappointment that followed.

What Went Wrong?

In a candid report to clients, Lee mentioned that the crypto market faces “significant internal resistance.” What does that even mean? It means that while the crypto community was having a raucous good time, traditional financial institutions still held back. People love attending conferences, but it appears that the bank folks were still staying home, binging Netflix instead of investing in Bitcoin.

The Hurdles that Stopped the Rally

• Institutional Tools: We need more than just enthusiasm; institutional investment tools have to step up.
• Bank Buy-in: It’s not enough for crypto fans to party; we need the banks to join in too.
• Regulatory Clarity: If regulations were a gatekeeper, they’re on lunch break. We need them back ASAP!

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Despite the setback, Fundstrat maintains an optimistic price target for Bitcoin, forecasting it to potentially soar as high as $25,000 by year-end. If that sounds like a stretch, don’t forget Lee’s bold prediction that Bitcoin might hit $36,000 by the end of 2019, based on the historical price-to-earnings (P/BE) multiple.

Keeping the Hope Alive

Just because the immediate rally didn’t manifest, it doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Thomas Lee believes that the large share of ‘financial institution attendance’ at Consensus is a sign that change is on the horizon. Maybe it’s time to write a sequel titled ‘When Good Predictions Go Bad: The Cryptic Chronicles of Lee’!